Modeling and forecasting population growth of Bangladesh

Beg, A.B.M. Rabiul Alam, and Islam, Md. Rafiqul (2016) Modeling and forecasting population growth of Bangladesh. American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 6 (4). pp. 190-195.

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Information about the population growth of a country is an important issue that helps keeping the gross domestic product at a standard level without accelerating inflation rate. This is the condition demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) for allocating funds for the development of the underdeveloped countries like Bangladesh. The population growth is the main target of Bangladesh government to keep the level of growth at a manageable level. This paper proposes an autoregressive time trend (ARt) model for forecasting population growth of Bangladesh. Using data from 1965 to 2003 and using the proposed ARt model this paper finds a downward population growth for Bangladesh for the extended period up to 2043.

Item ID: 49605
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2162-8475
Keywords: population growth, autoregressive time trend (ARt) model, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, Dickey-Fuller unit root test, cross validity predictive power (CVPP), R2, shrinkage
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This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY).

Date Deposited: 21 Jul 2017 04:57
FoR Codes: 49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4905 Statistics > 490501 Applied statistics @ 50%
49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490199 Applied mathematics not elsewhere classified @ 50%
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