A multi-scaled analysis of the effect of climate, commodity prices and risk on the livelihoods of Mongolian pastoralists

Addison, Jane, and Brown, C. (2014) A multi-scaled analysis of the effect of climate, commodity prices and risk on the livelihoods of Mongolian pastoralists. Journal of Arid Environments, 109. pp. 54-64.

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Abstract

Studies of common pool resources tend to neglect how aspects of the resource system interact with the external social, physical and institutional environment. We test the hypothesis that select market and non-market based options available to Mongolian Gobi Desert pastoralists in the current instiutional setting are not sufficient to ameliorate the risks of resource gaps caused by climatic and commodity price variability. An empirical decision tree was used to model interactions between climatic variability, commodity price volatility and economic returns. Results from the model were then discussed in light of a critical, qualitative analysis of risk management strategies and capabilities of pastoralists. Returns to pastoralists were dependent upon climate and commodity prices, as expected, but pastoralist decision-making could influence these returns. Pastoralist decision-making was further influenced by multi-scaled social, economic and climatic factors. Existing market-based options available to Mongolian Gobi Desert pastoralists reduced price, but not production, risks in this largely subsistent system. A focus on improving market-based options for reducing risk is likely to provide more benefits to livelihoods and landscape condition than modifying institutional settings governing access to the forage resource.

Item ID: 47855
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1095-922X
Keywords: decision tree, dryland, policy, social-ecological, volatility
Funders: NT Research and Innovation Board, Desert Knowledge CRC, Australian Rangeland Society, Endeavour Awards, Royal Geographical Society, CSIRO, University of Queensland
Date Deposited: 03 Apr 2017 02:37
FoR Codes: 07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling @ 100%
SEO Codes: 83 ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND ANIMAL PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8304 Pasture, Browse and Fodder Crops > 830499 Pasture, Browse and Fodder Crops not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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