Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

GBD 2015 Disease & Injury Incidence & Prevalence Collaborators, (2016) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet, 388 (10053). pp. 1545-1602.

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Abstract

Background: Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.

Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.

Findings: We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Interpretation: Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.

Item ID: 46465
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1474-547X
Additional Information:

© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

GBD 2015 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators: 629 authors including JCU-affiliated author, Richard C. Franklin.

Theo Vos†, Christine Allen, Megha Arora, Ryan M Barber, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Alexandria Brown, Austin Carter, Daniel C Casey, Fiona J Charlson, Alan Z Chen, Megan Coggeshall, Leslie Cornaby, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J Dicker, Tina Dilegge, Holly E Erskine, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Tom Fleming, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Nancy Fullman, Peter W Gething, Ellen M Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A Haagsma, Catherine O Johnson, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Toana Kawashima, Laura Kemmer, Ibrahim A Khalil, Yohannes Kinfu, Hmwe H Kyu, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S Lim, Alan D Lopez, Rafael Lozano, Laurie Marczak, George A Mensah, Ali H Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, Helen Olsen, David M Pigott, Christine Pinho, Zane Rankin, Nikolas Reinig, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Alison Smith, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A Thomas, Christopher Troeger, Joseph A Wagner, Haidong Wang, Valentine Wanga, Harvey A Whiteford, Leo Zoeckler, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir*, Kalkidan Hassen Abate*, Cristiana Abbafati*, Kaja M Abbas*, Foad Abd-Allah*, Biju Abraham*, Ibrahim Abubakar*, Laith J Abu-Raddad*, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh*, Ilana N Ackerman*, Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi*, Zanfina Ademi*, Arsène Kouablan Adou*, Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi*, Emilie Elisabet Agardh*, Arnav Agarwal*, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri*, Hamid Ahmadieh*, Oluremi N Ajala*, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi*, Nadia Akseer*, Ziyad Al-Aly*, Khurshid Alam*, Noore K M Alam*, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri*, Miguel Angel Alegretti*, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu*, Lily T Alexander*, Samia Alhabib*, Raghib Ali*, Ala'a Alkerwi*, François Alla*, Peter Allebeck*, Rajaa Al-Raddadi*, Ubai Alsharif*, Khalid A Altirkawi*, Nelson Alvis-Guzman*, Azmeraw T Amare*, Alemayehu Amberbir*, Heresh Amini*, Walid Ammar*, Stephen Marc Amrock*, Hjalte H Andersen*, Gregory M Anderson*, Benjamin O Anderson*, Carl Abelardo T Antonio*, Atsede Fantahun Aregay*, Johan Ärnlöv*, Al Artaman*, Hamid Asayesh*, Reza Assadi*, Suleman Atique*, Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho*, Ashish Awasthi*, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla*, Peter Azzopardi*, Umar Bacha*, Alaa Badawi*, Kalpana Balakrishnan*, Amitava Banerjee*, Aleksandra Barac*, Suzanne L Barker-Collo*, Till Bärnighausen*, Lars Barregard*, Lope H Barrero*, Arindam Basu*, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi*, Brent Bell*, Michelle L Bell*, Derrick A Bennett*, Isabela M Bensenor*, Habib Benzian*, Adugnaw Berhane*, Eduardo Bernabé*, Balem Demtsu Betsu*, Addisu Shunu Beyene*, Neeraj Bhala*, Samir Bhatt*, Sibhatu Biadgilign*, Kelly Bienhoff*, Boris Bikbov*, Stan Biryukov*, Donal Bisanzio*, Espen Bjertness*, Jed Blore*, Rohan Borschmann*, Soufiane Boufous*, Michael Brainin*, Alexandra Brazinova*, Nicholas J K Breitborde*, Jonathan Brown*, Rachelle Buchbinder*, Geoffrey Colin Buckle*, Zahid A Butt*, Bianca Calabria*, Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato*, Julio Cesar Campuzano*, Hélène Carabin*, Rosario Cárdenas*, David O Carpenter*, Juan Jesus Carrero*, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela*, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas*, Ferrán Catalá-López*, Jung-Chen Chang*, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang*, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze*, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa*, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi*, Rajiv Chowdhury*, Hanne Christensen*, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher*, Liliana G Ciobanu*, Massimo Cirillo*, Matthew M Coates*, Samantha M Colquhoun*, Cyrus Cooper*, Monica Cortinovis*, John A Crump*, Solomon Abrha Damtew*, Rakhi Dandona*, Farah Daoud*, Paul I Dargan*, José das Neves*, Gail Davey*, Adrian C Davis*, Diego De Leo*, Louisa Degenhardt*, Liana C Del Gobbo*, Robert P Dellavalle*, Kebede Deribe*, Amare Deribew*, Sarah Derrett*, Don C Des Jarlais*, Samath D Dharmaratne*, Preet K Dhillon*, Cesar Diaz-Torné*, Eric L Ding*, Tim R Driscoll*, Leilei Duan*, Manisha Dubey*, Bruce Bartholow Duncan*, Hedyeh Ebrahimi*, Richard G Ellenbogen*, Iqbal Elyazar*, Matthias Endres*, Aman Yesuf Endries*, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov*, Babak Eshrati*, Kara Estep*, Talha A Farid*, Carla Sofia e Sa Farinha*, André Faro*, Maryam S Farvid*, Farshad Farzadfar*, Valery L Feigin*, David T Felson*, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad*, Jefferson G Fernandes*, Joao C Fernandes*, Florian Fischer*, Joseph R A Fitchett*, Kyle Foreman*, F Gerry R Fowkes*, Jordan Fox*, Richard C Franklin*, Joseph Friedman*, Joseph Frostad*, Thomas Fürst*, Neal D Futran*, Belinda Gabbe*, Parthasarathi Ganguly*, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé*, Teshome Gebre*, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot*, Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin*, Johanna M Geleijnse*, Bradford D Gessner*, Katherine B Gibney*, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi*, Ababi Zergaw Giref*, Maurice Giroud*, Melkamu Dedefo Gishu*, Elizabeth Glaser*, William W Godwin*, Hector Gomez-Dantes*, Philimon Gona*, Amador Goodridge*, Sameer Vali Gopalani*, Carolyn C Gotay*, Atsushi Goto*, Hebe N Gouda*, Rebecca Grainger*, Felix Greaves*, Francis Guillemin*, Yuming Guo*, Rahul Gupta*, Rajeev Gupta*, Vipin Gupta*, Reyna A Gutiérrez*, Demewoz Haile*, Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu*, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu*, Yara A Halasa*, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh*, Samer Hamidi*, Mouhanad Hammami*, Jamie Hancock*, Alexis J Handal*, Graeme J Hankey*, Yuantao Hao*, Hilda L Harb*, Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan*, Josep Maria Haro*, Rasmus Havmoeller*, Roderick J Hay*, Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi*, Pouria Heydarpour*, Hans W Hoek*, Masako Horino*, Nobuyuki Horita*, H Dean Hosgood*, Damian G Hoy*, Aung Soe Htet*, Hsiang Huang*, John J Huang*, Chantal Huynh*, Marissa Iannarone*, Kim Moesgaard Iburg*, Kaire Innos*, Manami Inoue*, Veena J Iyer*, Kathryn H Jacobsen*, Nader Jahanmehr*, Mihajlo B Jakovljevic*, Mehdi Javanbakht*, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke*, Sun Ha Jee*, Panniyammakal Jeemon*, Paul N Jensen*, Ying Jiang*, Tariku Jibat*, Aida Jimenez-Corona*, Ye Jin*, Jost B Jonas*, Zubair Kabir*, Yogeshwar Kalkonde*, Ritul Kamal*, Haidong Kan*, André Karch*, Corine Kakizi Karema*, Chante Karimkhani*, Amir Kasaeian*, Anil Kaul*, Norito Kawakami*, Peter Njenga Keiyoro*, Andrew Haddon Kemp*, Andre Keren*, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran*, Yousef Saleh Khader*, Abdur Rahman Khan*, Ejaz Ahmad Khan*, Young-Ho Khang*, Sahil Khera*, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja*, Jagdish Khubchandani*, Christian Kieling*, Pauline Kim*, Cho-il Kim*, Daniel Kim*, Yun Jin Kim*, Niranjan Kissoon*, Luke D Knibbs*, Ann Kristin Knudsen*, Yoshihiro Kokubo*, Dhaval Kolte*, Jacek A Kopec*, Soewarta Kosen*, Georgios A Kotsakis*, Parvaiz A Koul*, Ai Koyanagi*, Michael Kravchenko*, Barthelemy Kuate Defo*, Burcu Kucuk Bicer*, Andreas A Kudom*, Ernst J Kuipers*, G Anil Kumar*, Michael Kutz*, Gene F Kwan*, Aparna Lal*, Ratilal Lalloo*, Tea Lallukka*, Hilton Lam*, Jennifer O Lam*, Sinead M Langan*, Anders Larsson*, Pablo M Lavados*, Janet L Leasher*, James Leigh*, Ricky Leung*, Miriam Levi*, Yichong Li*, Yongmei Li*, Juan Liang*, Shiwei Liu*, Yang Liu*, Belinda K Lloyd*, Warren D Lo*, Giancarlo Logroscino*, Katharine J Looker*, Paulo A Lotufo*, Raimundas Lunevicius*, Ronan A Lyons*, Mark T Mackay*, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek*, Mahdi Mahdavi*, Marek Majdan*, Azeem Majeed*, Reza Malekzadeh*, Wagner Marcenes*, David Joel Margolis*, Jose Martinez-Raga*, Felix Masiye*, João Massano*, Stephen Theodore McGarvey*, John J McGrath*, Martin McKee*, Brian J McMahon*, Peter A Meaney*, Alem Mehari*, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez*, Alemayehu B Mekonnen*, Yohannes Adama Melaku*, Peter Memiah*, Ziad A Memish*, Walter Mendoza*, Atte Meretoja*, Tuomo J Meretoja*, Francis Apolinary Mhimbira*, Ted R Miller*, Edward J Mills*, Mojde Mirarefin*, Philip B Mitchell*, Charles N Mock*, Alireza Mohammadi*, Shafiu Mohammed*, Lorenzo Monasta*, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez*, Marcella Montico*, Meghan D Mooney*, Maziar Moradi-Lakeh*, Lidia Morawska*, Ulrich O Mueller*, Erin Mullany*, John Everett Mumford*, Michele E Murdoch*, Jean B Nachega*, Gabriele Nagel*, Aliya Naheed*, Luigi Naldi*, Vinay Nangia*, John N Newton*, Marie Ng*, Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni*, Quyen Le Nguyen*, Muhammad Imran Nisar*, Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete*, Joan M Nolla*, Ole F Norheim*, Rosana E Norman*, Bo Norrving*, Bruno P Nunes*, Felix Akpojene Ogbo*, In-Hwan Oh*, Takayoshi Ohkubo*, Pedro R Olivares*, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya*, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya*, Alberto Ortiz*, Majdi Osman*, Erika Ota*, Mahesh PA*, Eun-Kee Park*, Mahboubeh Parsaeian*, Valéria Maria de Azeredo Passos*, Angel J Paternina Caicedo*, Scott B Patten*, George C Patton*, David M Pereira*, Rogelio Perez-Padilla*, Norberto Perico*, Konrad Pesudovs*, Max Petzold*, Michael Robert Phillips*, Frédéric B Piel*, Julian David Pillay*, Farhad Pishgar*, Dietrich Plass*, James A Platts-Mills*, Suzanne Polinder*, Constance D Pond*, Svetlana Popova*, Richie G Poulton*, Farshad Pourmalek*, Dorairaj Prabhakaran*, Noela M Prasad*, Mostafa Qorbani*, Rynaz H S Rabiee*, Amir Radfar*, Anwar Rafay*, Kazem Rahimi*, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar*, Mahfuzar Rahman*, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman*, Sajjad Ur Rahman*, Rajesh Kumar Rai*, Sasa Rajsic*, Usha Ram*, Puja Rao*, Amany H Refaat*, Marissa B Reitsma*, Giuseppe Remuzzi*, Serge Resnikoff*, Alex Reynolds*, Antonio L Ribeiro*, Maria Jesus Rios Blancas*, Hirbo Shore Roba*, David Rojas-Rueda*, Luca Ronfani*, Gholamreza Roshandel*, Gregory A Roth*, Dietrich Rothenbacher*, Ambuj Roy*, Rajesh Sagar*, Ramesh Sahathevan*, Juan R Sanabria*, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño*, Itamar S Santos*, João Vasco Santos*, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez*, Benn Sartorius*, Maheswar Satpathy*, Miloje Savic*, Monika Sawhney*, Michael P Schaub*, Maria Inês Schmidt*, Ione J C Schneider*, Ben Schöttker*, David C Schwebel*, James G Scott*, Soraya Seedat*, Sadaf G Sepanlou*, Edson E Servan-Mori*, Katya A Shackelford*, Amira Shaheen*, Masood Ali Shaikh*, Rajesh Sharma*, Upasana Sharma*, Jiabin Shen*, Donald S Shepard*, Kevin N Sheth*, Kenji Shibuya*, Min-Jeong Shin*, Rahman Shiri*, Ivy Shiue*, Mark G Shrime*, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir*, Diego Augusto Santos Silva*, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira*, Abhishek Singh*, Jasvinder A Singh*, Om Prakash Singh*, Prashant Kumar Singh*, Anna Sivonda*, Vegard Skirbekk*, Jens Christoffer Skogen*, Amber Sligar*, Karen Sliwa*, Michael Soljak*, Kjetil Søreide*, Joan B Soriano*, Luciano A Sposato*, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy*, Vasiliki Stathopoulou*, Nicholas Steel*, Dan J Stein*, Timothy J Steiner*, Sabine Steinke*, Lars Stovner*, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis*, Bruno F Sunguya*, Patrick Sur*, Soumya Swaminathan*, Bryan L Sykes*, Cassandra E I Szoeke*, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos*, Jukka S Takala*, Nikhil Tandon*, David Tanne*, Mohammad Tavakkoli*, Bineyam Taye*, Hugh R Taylor*, Braden J Te Ao*, Bemnet Amare Tedla*, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi*, Alan J Thomson*, Andrew L Thorne-Lyman*, Amanda G Thrift*, George D Thurston*, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai*, Marcello Tonelli*, Roman Topor-Madry*, Fotis Topouzis*, Bach Xuan Tran*, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene*, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris*, Abera Kenay Tura*, Emin Murat Tuzcu*, Stefanos Tyrovolas*, Kingsley N Ukwaja*, Eduardo A Undurraga*, Chigozie Jesse Uneke*, Olalekan A Uthman*, Coen H van Gool*, Yuri Y Varakin*, Tommi Vasankari*, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian*, Raj Kumar Verma*, Francesco S Violante*, Sergey K Vladimirov*, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov*, Stein Emil Vollset*, Gregory R Wagner*, Stephen G Waller*, Linhong Wang*, David A Watkins*, Scott Weichenthal*, Elisabete Weiderpass*, Robert G Weintraub*, Andrea Werdecker*, Ronny Westerman*, Richard A White*, Hywel C Williams*, Charles Shey Wiysonge*, Charles D A Wolfe*, Sungho Won*, Rachel Woodbrook*, Mamo Wubshet*, Denis Xavier*, Gelin Xu*, Ajit Kumar Yadav*, Lijing L Yan*, Yuichiro Yano*, Mehdi Yaseri*, Pengpeng Ye*, Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo*, Paul Yip*, Naohiro Yonemoto*, Seok-Jun Yoon*, Mustafa Z Younis*, Chuanhua Yu*, Zoubida Zaidi*, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki*, Hajo Zeeb*, Maigeng Zhou*, Sanjay Zodpey*, Liesl Joanna Zuhlke*, Christopher J L Murray.

*Authors listed alphabetically.

†Corresponding author.

Funders: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Date Deposited: 27 Nov 2016 23:25
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111712 Health Promotion @ 100%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920409 Injury Control @ 100%
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