Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity

Haig, Jordahna Ellan-Ann, and Nott, Jonathan (2016) Solar forcing over the last 1500 years and Australian tropical cyclone activity. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (6). pp. 2843-2850.

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Abstract

Accurate seasonal and decadal predictions of tropical cyclone activity are essential for the development of mitigation strategies for the 2.7 billion residents living within cyclone prone regions. The traditional indices (Southern Oscillation Index and various sea surface temperature indices) have fallen short in recent years as seasonal predictors within the Australian region. The short length of these records (i.e., <50 years) has meant that our current knowledge of larger-scale drivers at interdecadal, centennial, and millennial scales is limited. The development of a new tropical cyclone activity index spanning the last 1500 years has enabled the examination of tropical cyclone climatology at higher temporal resolution than was previously possible. Here we show that in addition to other well-known climate indices, solar forcing largely drives decadal, interdecadal, and centennial cycles within the tropical cyclone record.

Item ID: 45023
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1944-8007
Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC) Discovery Project, Queensland Smart State Initiative
Projects and Grants: ARC DP0772691
Date Deposited: 23 Aug 2016 21:58
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040604 Natural Hazards @ 50%
04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040605 Palaeoclimatology @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9610 Natural Hazards > 961002 Natural Hazards in Coastal and Estuarine Environments @ 100%
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