Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections

Maynard, Jeffrey, van Hooidonk, Ruben, Harvell, C. Drew, Eakin, C. Mark, Liu, Gang, Willis, Bette L., Williams, Gareth J., Groner, Maya L., Dobson, Andrew, Heron, Scott F., Glenn, Robert, Reardon, Kathleen, and Shields, Jeffrey D. (2016) Improving marine disease surveillance through sea temperature monitoring, outlooks and projections. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 371 (1689). pp. 1-11.

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Abstract

To forecast marine disease outbreaks as oceans warm requires new environmental surveillance tools. We describe an iterative process for developing these tools that combines research, development and deployment for suitable systems. The first step is to identify candidate host–pathogen systems. The 24 candidate systems we identified include sponges, corals, oysters, crustaceans, sea stars, fishes and sea grasses (among others). To illustrate the other steps, we present a case study of epizootic shell disease (ESD) in the American lobster. Increasing prevalence of ESD is a contributing factor to lobster fishery collapse in southern New England (SNE), raising concerns that disease prevalence will increase in the northern Gulf of Maine under climate change. The lowest maximum bottom temperature associated with ESD prevalence in SNE is 12°C. Our seasonal outlook for 2015 and long-term projections show bottom temperatures greater than or equal to 12°C may occur in this and coming years in the coastal bays of Maine. The tools presented will allow managers to target efforts to monitor the effects of ESD on fishery sustainability and will be iteratively refined. The approach and case example highlight that temperature-based surveillance tools can inform research, monitoring and management of emerging and continuing marine disease threats

Item ID: 42946
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
Keywords: climate change; Homarus americanus; epizootic; shell disease; marine disease; predictive tools; resource management
Additional Information:

©2016 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

ISSN: 1471-2970
Funders: National Science Foundation (NSF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Projects and Grants: NSF Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease RCN Grant No. OCE-1215977, NOAA Climate Programme Office Grant NA13OAR4310127, NOAA NMFS Saltonstall Kennedy Programme NA14NMF4270044
Date Deposited: 01 Aug 2016 04:27
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960507 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments @ 100%
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