Early transmission characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May – 3 June 2009

McBryde, E.S., Bergeri, I., van Gemert, C., Rotty, J., Headley, E.J., Simpson, K., Lester, R.A., Hellard, Margaret, and Fielding, J.E. (2009) Early transmission characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May – 3 June 2009. Eurosurveillance, 14 (42). 19363. pp. 1-6.

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Australia was one of the first countries of the southern hemisphere to experience influenza A(H1N1)v with community transmission apparent in Victoria, Australia, by 22 May 2009. With few identified imported cases, the epidemic spread through schools and communities leading to 897 confirmed cases by 3 June 2009. The estimated reproduction ratio up to 31 May 2009 was 2.4 (95% credible interval (CI): 2.1-2.6). Methods designed to account for undetected transmission reduce this estimate to 1.6 (95% CI: 1.5-1.8). Time varying reproduction ratio estimates show a steady decline in observed transmission over the first 14 days of the epidemic. This could be accounted for by ascertainment bias or a true impact of interventions including antiviral prophylaxis, treatment and school closure. Most cases (78%) in the first 19 days in Victoria were under the age of 20 years-old. Estimates suggest that the average youth primary case infected at least two other youths in the early growth phase, which was sufficient to drive the epidemic.

Item ID: 40355
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1560-7917
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Article is available for download free of charge from the publishers' home page.

Funders: National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia (NHMRC)
Projects and Grants: NHMRC Grant No. 603753
Date Deposited: 03 Sep 2015 03:17
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 40%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
16 STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY > 1605 Policy and Administration > 160508 Health Policy @ 20%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 50%
92 HEALTH > 9202 Health and Support Services > 920207 Health Policy Evaluation @ 50%
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