Financial benefits from using climate forecasting: a case study

Antony, George, Everingham, Yvette, and Smith, Mark (2002) Financial benefits from using climate forecasting: a case study. In: Proccedings of the 24th Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (24) pp. 1-10. From: ASSCT 2002: 24th Annual Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, 2002, Australia.

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While seasonal climate forecasts can potentially assist decisions in the sugar industry, there has been a lack of studies of the extent of their benefits. In a case study to quantify the benefits of using climate forecasts, data were derived by a focus group of farmers and millers from the Herbert region. Two scenarios were considered for the timing and management of a harvest season using climate forecasts: (1) the hypothetical case of having a perfect forecast before the calamitous 1998 season in time to mitigate the impact of adverse conditions, to calculate an indicative value for the potential maximum amount of benefits, and (2) the use of forecasts to an extent that reflects stakeholders' perceptions of the dependability of probabilistic climate forecasting. These scenarios were compared to the situation where decisions are made without considering climate forecasts. Region-wide benefits of a perfect forecast would have been approximately $19 m. Estimated benefits of the probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts amount to $1.7 m for the Herbert region.

Item ID: 40129
Item Type: Conference Item (Research - E1)
Keywords: economic, value, climate forecasting, sugar, Ingham, harvest decisions
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Funders: Sugar Research and Development Corporation (SRDC), Climate Variability and Agriculture R&D Program
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2015 00:25
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics @ 100%
SEO Codes: 82 PLANT PRODUCTION AND PLANT PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820304 Sugar @ 100%
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