Influenza: accounting for prior immunity

McCaw, James M., McVernon, Jodie, McBryde, Emma, and Mathews, John D. (2009) Influenza: accounting for prior immunity. Science, 325. p. 1071.

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[Extract] In their Report "Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings" (19 June, p. 1557), C. Fraser et al. analyzed the spread of novel A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico. They reported values for the basic reproduction number in a fully susceptible population (R0) in the range 1.2 to 1.6. It would have been preferable to instead report these as values for the effective reproduction number given prior immunity (R). The authors acknowledge that cross-immunity may lead to increased R0 estimates. However, by conflating R0 and R, they effectively assume that with a new virus, the entire population is susceptible. We do not believe that this assumption is necessarily justified.

Item ID: 39779
Item Type: Article (Commentary)
ISSN: 1095-9203
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2015 00:32
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 40%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
16 STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY > 1605 Policy and Administration > 160508 Health Policy @ 20%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 60%
92 HEALTH > 9203 Indigenous Health > 920309 Pacific Peoples Health - Health System Performance (incl. Effectiveness of Interventions) @ 20%
92 HEALTH > 9202 Health and Support Services > 920207 Health Policy Evaluation @ 20%
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