Influenza: accounting for prior immunity
McCaw, James M., McVernon, Jodie, McBryde, Emma, and Mathews, John D. (2009) Influenza: accounting for prior immunity. Science, 325. p. 1071.
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Abstract
[Extract] In their Report "Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): Early findings" (19 June, p. 1557), C. Fraser et al. analyzed the spread of novel A/H1N1 influenza in Mexico. They reported values for the basic reproduction number in a fully susceptible population (R0) in the range 1.2 to 1.6. It would have been preferable to instead report these as values for the effective reproduction number given prior immunity (R). The authors acknowledge that cross-immunity may lead to increased R0 estimates. However, by conflating R0 and R, they effectively assume that with a new virus, the entire population is susceptible. We do not believe that this assumption is necessarily justified.