Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data

Glass, K., Mercer, G.N., Nishiura, H., McBryde, E.S., and Becker, N.G. (2011) Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data. Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 8. pp. 1248-1259.

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We present a method for estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from daily onset data, using pandemic influenza A(H1N1) data as a case study. We investigate the impact of different underlying transmission assumptions on our estimates, and identify that asymmetric reproduction matrices are often appropriate. Under-reporting of cases can bias estimates of the reproduction numbers if reporting rates are not equal across the two age groups. However, we demonstrate that the estimate of the higher reproduction number is robust to disproportionate data-thinning. Applying the method to 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 data from Japan, we demonstrate that the reproduction number for children was considerably higher than that of adults, and that our estimates are insensitive to our choice of reproduction matrix.

Item ID: 39764
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1742-5662
Keywords: influenza; reproduction number; type structure; outbreak data
Date Deposited: 16 Sep 2015 01:03
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 40%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
16 STUDIES IN HUMAN SOCIETY > 1605 Policy and Administration > 160508 Health Policy @ 20%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 50%
92 HEALTH > 9202 Health and Support Services > 920207 Health Policy Evaluation @ 50%
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