Sloan, Sean (2007) Fewer people may not mean more forest for Latin American forest frontiers. Biotropica, 39 (4). pp. 443-446.

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Abstract

In "The Future of Tropical Forest Species" Wright and Muller-Landau (here after WML) (2006: 287) assert that "humans cause deforestation, and humans living in rural settings have the greatest impact on extant forest area in the tropics." They point to a positive correlation observed between human rural population density and deforestation to support their assertion. WML correlate rural population densities for 45 Asian, African and American countries with the proportion of "potential" forest remaining in each, subsequently explaining 76 percent of deforestation to date. WML then project future net tropical deforestation until 2030 using rural population projections. On the basis of the population deforestation relationship, WML conclude that anticipated declines in rural populations via urbanization will herald net afforestation, particularly in Latin America.

Drawing from the social science literature on land-use/cover change in tropical forests, I challenge WML's key analytical assumption char declines in rural population density after deforestation has occurred will result in widespread afforestation. WML do anticipate such challenges with their caveat that should land use become less labor intensive in future, then their predictions will be overly optimistic (2006: 295). WML fail to appreciate, however, that in Neotropical forest frontiers: (1) regrowth suppression via land-use extensification is a characteristic outcome of population decline; and (2) exogenous drivers of land-cover change are increasingly diminishing the role of local population in such change. These tendencies are both well established and ongoing, so challenging WML's predictions from their onset. I focus primarily, but not exclusively, on Latin America, as WML view this region most optimistically as an illustration of their expectations.

Item ID:	38612
Item Type:	Article (Commentary)
ISSN:	1744-7429
Date Deposited:	16 Mar 2016 04:41
FoR Codes:	05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring @ 60% 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050207 Environmental Rehabilitation (excl Bioremediation) @ 40%
SEO Codes:	96 ENVIRONMENT > 9612 Rehabilitation of Degraded Environments > 961202 Rehabilitation of Degraded Farmland, Arable Cropland and Permanent Cropland Environments @ 40% 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9612 Rehabilitation of Degraded Environments > 961203 Rehabilitation of Degraded Forest and Woodlands Environments @ 60%
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