Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas

Andrello, Marco, Mouillot, David, Somot, Samuel, Thuiller, Wilfried, and Manel, Stéphanie (2015) Additive effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas and larval supply to fished areas. Diversity and Distributions, 21 (2). pp. 139-150.

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View at Publisher Website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12250
 
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Abstract

Aim: To study the combined effects of climate change on connectivity between marine protected areas (MPAs) and larval supply to the continental shelf.

Location: The Mediterranean Sea, where sea surface temperatures are expected to strongly increase by the end of the 21st century, represents an archetypal situation with a dense MPA network but resource overexploitation outside.

Methods: Using an individual-based mechanistic model of larval transport, forced with an emission-driven regional climate change scenario for the Mediterranean Sea, we explored the combined effects of changes in hydrodynamics, adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on the connectivity among MPAs and their ability to seed fished areas with larvae.

Results: We show that, over the period 1970-2099, larval dispersal distances would decrease by 10%, the continental shelf area seeded with larvae would decrease by 3% and the larval retention fraction would increase by 5%, resulting in higher concentration of larvae in smaller areas of the continental shelf. However, connectance within the MPA network would increase by 5% as more northern MPAs would become suitable for reproduction with increasing temperatures. We also show that the effects of changes in adult reproductive timing and larval dispersal on connectivity patterns are additive.

Main conclusions: Climate change will influence connectivity and the effectiveness of MPA networks, and should receive more attention in future conservation planning and large-scale population dynamics.

Item ID: 37930
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1472-4642
Keywords: biophysical model, conservation planning, Epinephelus marginatus, larval dispersal, larval growth rate, reproductive timing
Funders: Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité (BIODIVMED), Total Foundation, Institut Universitaire de France, European Research Council (ERC)
Projects and Grants: ERC Seven Framework Programme FP7/2007 – 2013 Grant Agreement no. 281422 (TEEMBIO)
Date Deposited: 17 Mar 2015 17:08
Downloads: Total: 2
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