Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045

Sarink, Danja, Nedkoff, Lee, Briffa, Tom, Shaw, Jonathan E., Magliano, Dianna J., Stevenson, Christopher, Mannan, Haider, Knuiman, Matthew, and Peeters, Anna (2016) Projected age- and sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Western Australian adults from 2005-2045. European Journal of Preventative Cardiology, 23 (1). pp. 23-32.

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Abstract

Background:For decades, the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have declined. More recently, we have seen a halting in these declines, especially at younger ages. It is difficult to predict how these changing trends will impact CVD prevalence. We aimed to predict future prevalence of CVDs in Western Australian adults from 2005–2045 based on current incidence and mortality probabilities, population growth and ageing.

Methods and results: Multi-state life table models were developed using 2005–2009 age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality probabilities from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Prevalence of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke was projected until 2045. Life expectancy and lifetime risk were estimated. We estimate that compared to 2005–2009, we will see 37,235 (CVD), 23,129 (CHD) and 9806 (stroke) more incident cases in 2040–2044. The prevalence of total CVD is predicted to increase from 8.4% in men and 5.1% in women in 2005 to 12.7% and 7.9% respectively in 2045. This seems to be mainly due to population growth and ageing, with some effect of changing incidence and mortality. In Western Australia this represents an additional 106,949 adults living with CVD, of which 65,951 with CHD and 10,928 with stroke, in 2045 compared to 2005.

Conclusions: Assuming no major changes in prevention and treatment of CVD, the prevalence will likely increase, with consequent increases in health care need and cost. These findings need to be confirmed by studies in which prevalence is consistently and empirically measured and monitored over time.

Item ID: 35891
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2047-4881
Funders: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Victorian Operational Infrastructure Support Program
Projects and Grants: NHMRC Grant No. APP1027215, NHMRC Grant No. APP1002663
Date Deposited: 22 Oct 2014 03:07
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010403 Forensic Statistics @ 30%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010402 Biostatistics @ 30%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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