Projected progression of the prevalence of obesity in Australia

Walls, Helen L., Magliano, Diana J., Stevenson, Christopher E., Backholer, Kathryn, Mannan, Haider R., Shaw, Jonathan E., and Peeters, Anna (2012) Projected progression of the prevalence of obesity in Australia. Obesity, 20 (4). pp. 872-878.

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View at Publisher Website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/oby.2010.338
 
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Abstract

Several country-specific and global projections of the future obesity prevalence have been conducted. However, these projections are obtained by extrapolating past prevalence of obesity or distributions of body weight. More accurate would be to base estimates on the most recent measures of weight change. Using measures of overweight and obesity incidence from a national, longitudinal study, we estimated the future obesity prevalence in Australian adults. Participants were adults aged ≥25 years in 2000 participating in the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study (baseline 2000, follow-up 2005). In this population, approximately one-fifth of those with normal weight or overweight progressed to a higher weight category within 5 years. Between 2000 and 2025, the adult prevalence of normal weight was estimated to decrease from 40.6 to 28.1% and the prevalence of obesity to increase from 20.5 to 33.9%. By the time, those people aged 25–29 in 2000 reach 60–64 years, 22.1% will be normal weight, and 42.4% will be obese. On average, normal-weight females aged 25–29 years in 2000 will live another 56.2 years: 26.6 years with normal weight, 15.6 years with overweight, and 14.0 years with obesity. Normal-weight males aged 25–29 years in 2000 will live another 51.5 years: 21.6 years with normal weight, 21.1 years with overweight, and 8.8 years with obesity. If the rates of weight gain observed in the first 5 years of this decade are maintained, our findings suggest that normal-weight adults will constitute less than a third of the population by 2025, and the obesity prevalence will have increased by 65%.

Item ID: 35536
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1930-739X
Funders: National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, Abbott Australasia Pty Ltd, Alphapharm Pty Ltd, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, City Health Centre-Diabetes Service, Canberra, Department of Health and Community Services, Northern Territory, Department of Health and Human Services, Tasmania, Department of Health, New South Wales, Department of Health, Western Australia, Department of Health, South Australia, Department of Human Services, Victoria, Diabetes Australia, Diabetes Australia Northern Territory, Eli Lilly Australia, Estate of the Late Edward Wilson, GlaxoSmithKline, Jack Brockhoff Foundation, Janssen-Cilag, Kidney Health Australia, Marian & FH Flack Trust, Menzies Research Institute, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis Pharmaceuticals, Novo Nordisk Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer Pty Ltd, Pratt Foundation, Queensland Health, Roche Diagnostics Australia, Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Sanofi Aventis, Sanofi Synthelabo
Projects and Grants: NHMRC grant 465130, NHMRC grant 233200
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2014 23:52
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010402 Biostatistics @ 30%
14 ECONOMICS > 1403 Econometrics > 140304 Panel Data Analysis @ 30%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920499 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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