Stochastic and robust multi-objective optimal management of pumping from coastal aquifers under parameter uncertainty

Sreekanth, J., and Datta, Bithin (2014) Stochastic and robust multi-objective optimal management of pumping from coastal aquifers under parameter uncertainty. Water Resources Management, 28 (7). pp. 2005-2019.

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Abstract

Combined simulation-optimization approaches have been used as tools to derive optimal groundwater management strategies to maintain or improve water quality in contaminated or other aquifers. Surrogate models based on neural networks, regression models, support vector machies etc., are used as substitutes for the numerical simulation model in order to reduce the computational burden on the simulation-optimization approach. However, the groundwater flow and transport system itself being characterized by uncertain parameters, using a deterministic surrogate model to substitute it is a gross and unrealistic approximation of the system. Till date, few studies have considered stochastic surrogate modeling to develop groundwater management methodologies. In this study, we utilize genetic programming (GP) based ensemble surrogate models to characterize coastal aquifer water quality responses to pumping, under parameter uncertainty. These surrogates are then coupled with multiple realization optimization for the stochastic and robust optimization of groundwater management in coastal aquifers. The key novelty in the proposed approach is the capability to capture the uncertainty in the physical system, to a certain extent, in the ensemble of surrogate models and using it to constrain the optimization search to derive robust optimal solutions. Uncertainties in hydraulic conductivity and the annual aquifer recharge are incorporated in this study. The results obtained indicate that the methodology is capable of developing reliable and robust strategies for groundwater management.

Item ID: 33738
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
Keywords: saltwater intrusion, groundwater quality management, simulation-optimization, coastal aquifers
ISSN: 1573-1650
Funders: Cooperative Research Centre for Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment, James Cook University
Date Deposited: 18 Jun 2014 09:28
FoR Codes: 09 ENGINEERING > 0905 Civil Engineering > 090509 Water Resources Engineering @ 50%
09 ENGINEERING > 0907 Environmental Engineering > 090799 Environmental Engineering not elsewhere classified @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9609 Land and Water Management > 960999 Land and Water Management of Environments not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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