Downscaled rainfall projections for the Burdekin, Mackay and NSW

Everingham, Y., Sexton, J., and Timbal, B. (2013) Downscaled rainfall projections for the Burdekin, Mackay and NSW. In: Proccedings of the 35th Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, pp. 1-10. From: 35th Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, 16-18 April 2013, Townsville, QLD, Australia.

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Abstract

An excess or deficit in rainfall can affect regional crop productivity and sugar industry operations. This paper investigated the implications of climate change on seasonal rainfall in the Burdekin, Mackay and NSW using a range of downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs). Eleven statistically downscaled GCMs were used to produce seasonal rainfall totals for the base period 1961 to 2000. Future GCM projections for 2046 to 2065 were then downscaled for a low (B1) and high (A2) emissions scenario and compared with the base period. Spatial changes in rainfall patterns were examined and confidence intervals were used to assess the 25th, 50th and 75th percentiles of paired model differences between the two time periods. The spatial maps demonstrated that changes in rainfall patterns were not uniform within a region. The confidence intervals suggested it was plausible for industry to consider planning for an increase in summer rainfall (A2 scenario) for the Burdekin, and a decrease in summer (A2 scenario) and winter (B1 scenario) rainfall for NSW. These findings will assist industry adapt to a changing climate.

Item ID: 32640
Item Type: Conference Item (Refereed Research Paper - E1)
Keywords: GCM; sustainable; global warming; adaption; CMIP
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ISSN: 0726-0822
Funders: Australian Government
Projects and Grants: SRDC grant (JCU032)
Date Deposited: 15 Apr 2014 23:53
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics @ 100%
SEO Codes: 82 PLANT PRODUCTION AND PLANT PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820304 Sugar @ 100%
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