Potential impacts of demographic change on domestic tourism demand in the year 2021 - a Delphi study

Singer, Petra, and Prideaux, Bruce (2007) Potential impacts of demographic change on domestic tourism demand in the year 2021 - a Delphi study. In: Proceedings of the 17th Annual CAUTHE Conference. From: CAUTHE 2007: Tourism - Past Achievements, Future Challenges, 11-14 FEB 2007, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

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Abstract

Demographic change has been identified as a key driver of future tourism demand. This research employed a Delphi study amongst representatives of public and private tourism organisations in Queensland to identify potential impacts of population growth, population ageing and changing family structures on aspects of domestic tourism demand. The results show that demographic change influences, amongst others, the timing and duration of holidays, the financial resources allocated for tourism, the choice of destinations, and the type of activities undertaken. While some impacts of demographic change may be predicted with higher certainty that others, it is vital for tourism organisations to include elements of slow change such as demographics into long-term planning processes and to consider that some elements of change may be less certain than they appear. It is recommended that forecasting processes become more flexible to incorporate such uncertainties.

Item ID: 3190
Item Type: Conference Item (Research - E1)
ISBN: 978-0-646-46998-0
Keywords: population ageing; Queensland; Delphi; family structure
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Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2009 04:37
FoR Codes: 15 COMMERCE, MANAGEMENT, TOURISM AND SERVICES > 1506 Tourism > 150602 Tourism Forecasting @ 100%
SEO Codes: 90 COMMERCIAL SERVICES AND TOURISM > 9003 Tourism > 900399 Tourism not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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