Exploring the capabilities of a long lead climate forecasting system for the NSW sugar industry

Everingham, Y.L., Clarke, A.J., Chen, C.C.M., Van Gorder, S., and McGuire, P. (2007) Exploring the capabilities of a long lead climate forecasting system for the NSW sugar industry. In: Proceedings of the 2007 Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists . pp. 9-17. From: 29th Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, 8-11 May 2007, Cairns, Queensland, Australia.

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Abstract

Unexpected wet harvest seasons can have catastrophic consequences for the Australian sugar industry. With operational forecasting systems we typically have to wait until the end of Autumn (e.g. June) before more skilful forecasts can be produced about the harvest season ahead. Many important decisions however, such as when to start the crushing season, must be finalised much earlier in the year. This paper explores the capability of a new long lead forecasting system to predict prior to Autumn, the harvest rainfall. This investigation was conducted for three sugar growing regions in New South Wales (NSW), Harwood, Ballina and Condong. Results revealed that for all three locations, the threat of interruption to the harvest by rainfall could be detected as early as January when the model predicted that La Niña type conditions would emerge post-Autumn. This early warning forecasting capability offers the NSW sugar industry a valuable source of information to aid decisions that must be made early in the year and are impacted by rainfall much later in the year.

Item ID: 3150
Item Type: Conference Item (Research - E1)
ISSN: 0726-0822
Keywords: ENSO; Nino 3.4; autumn; barrier; rainfall
Date Deposited: 13 Jul 2009 04:51
FoR Codes: 07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070108 Sustainable Agricultural Development @ 34%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics @ 33%
04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0499 Other Earth Sciences > 049999 Earth Sciences not elsewhere classified @ 33%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9699 Other Environment > 969999 Environment not elsewhere classified @ 51%
82 PLANT PRODUCTION AND PLANT PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820304 Sugar @ 49%
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