The predictive value of microbiologic diagnostic tests if asymptomatic carriers are present

Gunnarsson, Ronny K., and Lanke, Jan (2002) The predictive value of microbiologic diagnostic tests if asymptomatic carriers are present. Statistics in Medicine, 21 (12). pp. 1773-1785.

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If a proper gold standard is not available, then the predictive value of a test cannot be estimated. In this paper the concept of etiologic predictive value (EPV) is introduced. It is a quantity that will yield the predictive value of a test to predict presence of a specified disease in situations for which no proper gold standard is available. This is achieved by using information obtained from a healthy control population. This quantity requires that the marker in our test is present in all individuals having the specified disease, as in the case where the marker is the aetiologic factor for the specified disease. Furthermore this quantity requires that asymptomatic carriers are present. This means that not all individuals with the marker has the specified disease. EPV is developed with special reference to the evaluation of bacterial cultures, or rapid tests to detect a bacterium, but the quantity might be used in other circumstances as well. EPV is applied to an example in which conventional throat culture is evaluated.

Item ID: 30775
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1097-0258
Keywords: predictive value of tests; carrier state; tonsillitis/diagnosis; streptococcus pyogenes/isolation and purification; respiratory tract infections/diagnosis; streptococcal infections/diagnosis
Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2014 02:32
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010402 Biostatistics @ 30%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010404 Probability Theory @ 40%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 30%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9202 Health and Support Services > 920203 Diagnostic Methods @ 100%
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