Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: a review

Berger, Uta, Rivera-Monroy, Victor H., Doyle, Thomas W., Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid, Duke, Norman C., Fontalvo-Herazo, Martha L., Hildenbrandt, Hanno, Koedam, Nico, Mehlig, Ulf, Piou, Cyril, and Twilley, Robert R. (2008) Advances and limitations of individual-based models to analyze and predict dynamics of mangrove forests: a review. Aquatic Botany, 89 (2). pp. 260-274.

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Abstract

Mangrove ecosystems are considered vulnerable to climate change as coastal development limits the ecosystem services and adaptations important to their survival. Although they appear rather simple in terms of species diversity, their ecology is complex due to interacting geophysical forces of tides, surface runoff, river and groundwater discharge, waves, and constituents of sediment, nutrients and saltwater. These interactions limit developing a comprehensive framework for science-based sustainable management practices. A suite of models have been developed independently by various academic and government institutions worldwide to understand the dynamics of mangrove ecosystems and to provide ecological forecasting capabilities under different management scenarios and natural disturbance regimes. The models have progressed from statistical tables representing growth and yield to more sophisticated models describing various system components and processes. Among these models are three individual-based models (IBMs) (FORMAN, KIWI, and MANGRO). A comparison of models' designs reveal differences in the details of process description, particularly, regarding neighbor competition among trees. Each model has thus its specific range of applications. Whereas FORMAN and KIWI are most suitable to address mangrove forest dynamics of stands, MANGRO focuses on landscape dynamics on larger spatial scale. A comparison of the models and a comparison of the models with empirical knowledge further reveal the general needs for further field and validation studies to advance our ecological understanding and management of mangrove wetlands.

Item ID: 30009
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 0304-3770
Keywords: simulation model, tree growth, regeneration, mortality, hurricane, sea-level rise, FORMAN, KIWI, MANGRO
Funders: Jet Propulsion Laboratory- NASA (Land Cover Land Use Change program), NSFFCE- LTER program
Projects and Grants: NSFFCE- LTER (DEB-9901514)
Date Deposited: 30 Oct 2013 09:41
FoR Codes: 06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 50%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050206 Environmental Monitoring @ 20%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050104 Landscape Ecology @ 30%
SEO Codes: 97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970105 Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences @ 20%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960503 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Coastal and Estuarine Environments @ 60%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9606 Environmental and Natural Resource Evaluation > 960603 Environmental Lifecycle Assessment @ 20%
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