Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach

Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie, Williams, Craig, Ritchie, Scott A., Rau, Gina, Lindesay, Janette, Mercer, Geoff, and Harley, David (2013) Weather-driven variation in dengue activity in Australia examined using a process-based modeling approach. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 88 (1). pp. 65-72.

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Abstract

The impact of weather variation on dengue transmission in Cairns, Australia, was determined by applying a process-based dengue simulation model (DENSiM) that incorporated local meteorologic, entomologic, and demographic data. Analysis showed that inter-annual weather variation is one of the significant determinants of dengue outbreak receptivity. Cross-correlation analyses showed that DENSiM simulated epidemics of similar relative magnitude and timing to those historically recorded in reported dengue cases in Cairns during 1991-2009, (r = 0.372, P < 0.01). The DENSiM model can now be used to study the potential impacts of future climate change on dengue transmission. Understanding the impact of climate variation on the geographic range, seasonality, and magnitude of dengue transmission will enhance development of adaptation strategies to minimize future disease burden in Australia.

Item ID: 29515
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1476-1645
Date Deposited: 31 Oct 2013 00:31
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1108 Medical Microbiology > 110804 Medical Virology @ 100%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 100%
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