Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India

Ghosh, Saibal, van Westen, Cees J., Carranza, Emmanuel John M., and Jetten, Victor G. (2012) Integrating spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities for medium-scale landslide risk analysis in Darjeeling Himalayas, India. Landslides, 9 (3). pp. 371-384.

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Landslide risk assessment is based on spatially integrating landslide hazard with exposed elements-at-risk to determine their vulnerability and to express the expected direct and indirect losses. There are three components that are relevant for expressing landslide hazard: spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities. At a medium-scale analysis, this is often done by first deriving a landslide susceptibility map, and to determine the three types of probabilities on the basis of landslide inventories linked to particular triggering events. The determination of spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities depend mainly on the availability of sufficiently complete historical records of past landslides, which in general are rare in most countries (e.g., India, etc.). In this paper, we presented an approach to use available historical information on landslide inventories for landslide hazard and risk analysis on a medium scale (1:25,000) in a perennially typical data-scarce environment in Darjeeling Himalayas (India). We demonstrate how the incompleteness in the resulting landslide database influences the various components in the calculation of specific risk of elements-at-risk (e.g., buildings, population, roads, etc.). We incorporate the uncertainties involved in the risk estimation and illustrate the range of expected losses in the form of maximum and minimum loss curves. The study demonstrates that even in data-scarce environments, quantitative landslide risk assessment is a viable option, as long as the uncertainties involved are expressed.

Item ID: 27373
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1612-5118
Keywords: landslide hazard and risk analysis, uncertainty, Darjeeling Himalayas, spatial and temporal probability
Date Deposited: 31 May 2013 01:18
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040604 Natural Hazards @ 50%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics > 010399 Numerical and Computational Mathematics not elsewhere classified @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9610 Natural Hazards > 961008 Natural Hazards in Mountain and High Country Environments @ 100%
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