The future of Amazonia: models to predict the consequences of future infrastructure in Brazil's multi-annual plans

Fearnside, Philip, Laurance, William F., Cochrane, Mark A., Bergen, Scott, Sampaio, Patricia, Barber, Christopher, D'Angelo, Sammya, and Fernandes, Tito (2012) The future of Amazonia: models to predict the consequences of future infrastructure in Brazil's multi-annual plans. Novos Cadernos, 15 (1). pp. 25-52.

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Since 1996 the planning of the Brazilian Government's investment has been organized into four-year plans: Brazil in Action (1996-1999), Advance Brazil (2000- 2003), PPA [Multi-Annual Plan] (2004-2007), PAC [Program for the Acceleration of Growth] (2008-2011), and PAC-2 (2012-2015). Each plan has included a long list of roads, dams and other large infrastructure projects in the Amazon. Several of these projects have been included in a number of plans because economic constraints have prevented the completion of the projects at the pace initially imagined. This is the case with projects such as the Belo Monte Hydroelectric Dam and the BR-163 (Cuiabá-Santarém) and BR- 319 (Manaus-Porto Velho) Highways. These delayed projects are now either under construction or about to start. Models have been developed by different groups to predict the future consequences if projects such as these are undertaken. Different models capture different aspects of the problem, and many of them indicate large increases in deforestation and degradation with serious environmental and social implications. One of the models takes as a point of departure the assumption that roads would have negligible or even beneficial effects on total deforestation, but this contradicts what is observed in the real world.

Item ID: 24458
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
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Article written in Portuguese. Abstract [Portuguese]: Desde 1996 o planejamento de investimentos do governo brasileiro tem sido organizado em planos quadrianuais: Brasil em Ação (1996-1999), Avança Brasil (2000-2003), PPA [Plano Plurianual] (2004-2007), PAC [Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento] (2008-2011), e PAC-2 (2012-2015). Cada plano tem incluído uma longa lista de rodovias, barragens e outros grandes projetos de infraestrutura na Amazônia. Vários desses projetos têm sido incluídos em uma série de planos, pois restrições econômicas não permitiram a realização das obras no ritmo inicialmente imaginado. Este é o caso de obras como a hidrelétrica de Belo Monte e as rodovias BR-163 (Santarém-Cuiabá) e BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho). Estes projetos adiados estão hoje sendorealizados ou próximos à realização. Uma série de modelos tem sido elaborada por diferentes grupos para prever as consequências futuras, caso essas obras sejam realizadas. Diferentes modelos captam diferentes aspectos da problemática, e vários deles indicam grandes aumentos de desmatamento e degradação, com graves implicações ambientais e sociais. Um dos modelos parte da premissa de que as estradas teriam efeitos nulos ou até benéficos sobre total de desmatamento, mas essa suposição contradiz o que é observado no mundo real.

ISSN: 1516-6481
Date Deposited: 09 Jan 2013 05:36
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050202 Conservation and Biodiversity @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960899 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity of Environments not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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