Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts

Keith, Ross (2003) Optimization of value of aerodrome forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 18 (5). pp. 808-824.

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Prediction of short-term variations of vital boundary layer conditions at airports, such as visibility and cloud base, is important to the safe and economic operation of airlines. Results of an experiment involving groups of forecasters at three different locations across Australia are presented. The forecasters were asked to indicate their degree of confidence that weather at the airport would be below “minimums” that would require aircraft to carry adequate fuel to proceed to an alternate destination should they not be able to land. The results of the trial are shown to closely obey a Gaussian model as used in signal detection theory (SDT). The data are fitted to an accuracy-value model developed by Mason. The paper demonstrates the ability of forecasters to provide reasonably reliable probability forecasts of significant events at airports. The potential value in reliable estimation of the probability of low visibility and cloud base at aerodromes is estimated by using cost parameters for two actual examples of flights into Melbourne and Townsville, Australia.

Item ID: 13832
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1520-0434
Date Deposited: 04 Nov 2010 03:54
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9602 Atmosphere and Weather > 960203 Weather @ 100%
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