A predictive model for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever epidemics

Halide, Halmar, and Ridd, Peter V. (2008) A predictive model for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever epidemics. International Journal of Environmental Health Research, 18 (4). pp. 253-265.

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Abstract

A statistical model for predicting monthly Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) cases from the city of Makassar is developed and tested. The model uses past and present DHF cases, climate and meteorological observations as inputs. These inputs are selected using a stepwise regression method to predict future DHF cases. The model is tested independently and its skill assessed using two skill measures. Using the selected variables as inputs, the model is capable of predicting a moderately-severe epidemic at lead times of up to six months. The most important input variable in the prediction is the present number of DHF cases followed by the relative humidity three to four months previously. A prediction 1-6 months in advance is sufficient to initiate various activities to combat DHF epidemic. The model is suitable for warning and easily becomes an operational tool due to its simplicity in data requirement and computational effort.

Item ID: 6443
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
Keywords: DHF epidemics; prediction skills; statistical model
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ISSN: 1369-1619
Date Deposited: 20 Mar 2010 01:17
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040107 Meteorology @ 34%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1199 Other Medical and Health Sciences > 119999 Medical and Health Sciences not elsewhere classified @ 33%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0599 Other Environmental Sciences > 059999 Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified @ 33%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9299 Other Health > 929999 Health not elsewhere classified @ 51%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9699 Other Environment > 969999 Environment not elsewhere classified @ 49%
Citation Count from Web of Science Web of Science 11
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