Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

GBD 2015 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, (2016) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet, 388 (10053). pp. 1603-1658.

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Abstract

Background: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development.

Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate.

Findings: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9–3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4–3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78–0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1–1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs.

Interpretation: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.

Item ID: 46466
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1474-547X
Additional Information:

© The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

GBD 2015 DALYs and HALE Collaborators: 610 authors including JCU-affiliated author, Richard C. Franklin.

Nicholas J Kassebaum, Megha Arora, Ryan M Barber, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Jonathan Brown, Austin Carter, Daniel C Casey, Fiona J Charlson, Matthew M Coates, Megan Coggeshall, Leslie Cornaby, Lalit Dandona, Daniel J Dicker, Holly E Erskine, Alize J Ferrari, Christina Fitzmaurice, Kyle Foreman, Mohammad H Forouzanfar, Nancy Fullman, Peter W Gething, Ellen M Goldberg, Nicholas Graetz, Juanita A Haagsma, Catherine O Johnson, Laura Kemmer, Ibrahim A Khalil, Yohannes Kinfu, Michael J Kutz, Hmwe H Kyu, Janni Leung, Xiaofeng Liang, Stephen S Lim, Rafael Lozano, George A Mensah, Joe Mikesell, Ali H Mokdad, Meghan D Mooney, Mohsen Naghavi, Grant Nguyen, Elaine Nsoesie, David M Pigott, Christine Pinho, Zane Rankin, Nikolas Reinig, Joshua A Salomon, Logan Sandar, Alison Smith, Reed J D Sorensen, Jeffrey Stanaway, Caitlyn Steiner, Stephanie Teeple, Bernadette A Thomas, Chris Troeger, Amelia VanderZanden, Joseph A Wagner, Valentine Wanga, Harvey A Whiteford, Maigeng Zhou, Leo Zoeckler, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir*, Kalkidan Hassen Abate*, Cristiana Abbafati*, Kaja M Abbas*, Foad Abd-Allah*, Biju Abraham*, Ibrahim Abubakar*, Laith J Abu-Raddad*, Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh*, Tom Achoki*, Ilana N Ackerman*, Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi*, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji*, José C Adsuar*, Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi*, Ashkan Afshin*, Emilie Elisabet Agardh*, Arnav Agarwal*, Sanjay Kumar Agarwal*, Muktar Beshir Ahmed*, Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri*, Hamid Ahmadieh*, Nadia Akseer*, Ziyad Al-Aly*, Khurshid Alam*, Noore K M Alam*, Saleh Fahed Aldhahri*, Miguel Angel Alegretti*, Alicia V Aleman*, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu*, Lily T Alexander*, Raghib Ali*, Ala'a Alkerwi*, François Alla*, Peter Allebeck*, Ubai Alsharif*, Khalid A Altirkawi*, Elena Alvarez Martin*, Nelson Alvis-Guzman*, Azmeraw T Amare*, Alemayehu Amberbir*, Adeladza Kofi Amegah*, Heresh Amini*, Walid Ammar*, Stephen Marc Amrock*, Gregory M Anderson*, Benjamin O Anderson*, Carl Abelardo T Antonio*, Palwasha Anwari*, Johan Ärnlöv*, Valentina S Arsic 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Andrew Haddon Kemp*, Andre Pascal Kengne*, Andre Keren*, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran*, Yousef Saleh Khader*, Abdur Rahman Khan*, Ejaz Ahmad Khan*, Young-Ho Khang*, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja*, Jagdish Khubchandani*, Christian Kieling*, Cho-il Kim*, Daniel Kim*, Yun Jin Kim*, Niranjan Kissoon*, Miia Kivipelto*, Luke D Knibbs*, Ann Kristin Knudsen*, Yoshihiro Kokubo*, Dhaval Kolte*, Jacek A Kopec*, Parvaiz A Koul*, Ai Koyanagi*, Barthelemy Kuate Defo*, Ricardo S Kuchenbecker*, Burcu Kucuk Bicer*, Ernst J Kuipers*, G Anil Kumar*, Gene F Kwan*, Ratilal Lalloo*, Tea Lallukka*, Anders Larsson*, Asma Abdul Latif*, Pablo M Lavados*, Alicia Elena Beatriz Lawrynowicz*, Janet L Leasher*, James Leigh*, Ricky Leung*, Yichong Li*, Yongmei Li*, Steven E Lipshultz*, Patrick Y Liu*, Yang Liu*, Belinda K Lloyd*, Giancarlo Logroscino*, Katharine J Looker*, Paulo A Lotufo*, Robyn M Lucas*, Raimundas Lunevicius*, Ronan A Lyons*, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek*, Mahdi Mahdavi*, Marek Majdan*, Azeem 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Stefano Ricci*, Hirbo Shore Roba*, David Rojas-Rueda*, Luca Ronfani*, Gholamreza Roshandel*, Gregory A Roth*, Ambuj Roy*, Ben Benasco Sackey*, Rajesh Sagar*, Juan R Sanabria*, Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño*, Itamar S Santos*, João Vasco Santos*, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez*, Benn Sartorius*, Maheswar Satpathy*, Miloje Savic*, Monika Sawhney*, Maria Inês Schmidt*, Ione J C Schneider*, Aletta E Schutte*, David C Schwebel*, Soraya Seedat*, Sadaf G Sepanlou*, Edson E Servan-Mori*, Saeid Shahraz*, Masood Ali Shaikh*, Rajesh Sharma*, Jun She*, Sara Sheikhbahaei*, Jiabin Shen*, Kevin N Sheth*, Kenji Shibuya*, Mika Shigematsu*, Min-Jeong Shin*, Rahman Shiri*, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir*, Diego Augusto Santos Silva*, Jonathan I Silverberg*, Edgar P Simard*, Abhishek Singh*, Jasvinder A Singh*, Prashant Kumar Singh*, Vegard Skirbekk*, Jens Christoffer Skogen*, Michael Soljak*, Kjetil Søreide*, Reed J D Sorensen*, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy*, Vasiliki Stathopoulou*, Nicholas Steel*, Dan J Stein*, 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Wagner*, Mitchell T Wallin*, Linhong Wang*, Scott Weichenthal*, Elisabete Weiderpass*, Robert G Weintraub*, Andrea Werdecker*, Ronny Westerman*, Tissa Wijeratne*, James D Wilkinson*, Hywel C Williams*, Charles Shey Wiysonge*, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes*, Charles D A Wolfe*, Sungho Won*, Gelin Xu*, Ajit Kumar Yadav*, Bereket Yakob*, Lijing L Yan*, Yuichiro Yano*, Mehdi Yaseri*, Pengpeng Ye*, Paul Yip*, Naohiro Yonemoto*, Seok-Jun Yoon*, Mustafa Z Younis*, Chuanhua Yu*, Zoubida Zaidi*, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki*, Hajo Zeeb*, Sanjay Zodpey*, David Zonies*, Liesl Joanna Zuhlke*, Theo Vos†, Alan D Lopez†, Christopher J L Murray†.

*Authors listed alphabetically.

†Joint senior authors.

Funders: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF)
Date Deposited: 27 Nov 2016 23:02
FoR Codes: 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4206 Public health > 420603 Health promotion @ 100%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920409 Injury Control @ 100%
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