Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature

McLean, J.D., de Freitas, C.R., and Carter, R.M. (2009) Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research: atmospheres, 114 (D14104). pp. 1-8.

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View at Publisher Website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011637

Abstract

Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958−2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Niño−Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.

Item ID: 10970
Item Type: Article (Refereed Research - C1)
ISSN: 1934-8843
Date Deposited: 07 May 2010 00:29
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040102 Atmospheric Dynamics @ 100%
SEO Codes: 97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970104 Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences @ 100%
Citation Count from Web of Science Web of Science 13
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